Research by charity Trust for London reveals the neighbourhoods where average incomes have risen fastest, reports Noah Vickers, Local Democracy Reporter

Map of 'most gentrified' wards in London (credit Trust for London) — Map of ‘most gentrified’ wards in London (credit Trust for London)

New research has revealed the 53 London neighbourhoods which “gentrified” most rapidly in the 2010s – including one in Enfield borough.

The analysis, published by Trust for London, found that areas across the East End, Southwark, Brent and Haringey saw the most extreme changes in average incomes between 2012 and 2020.

On average, the 53 council wards identified in the research saw average incomes increase by 11%, compared with a 1% rise seen across the rest of London – after inflation is taken into account.

The largest jumps in income were seen in Spitalfields, which saw a 45% rise in residents’ pay, Aldgate, with a 29% increase, and Bethnal Green South, at 27%. All three are found in the borough of Tower Hamlets, which was found to be the most gentrified borough as it contains twelve of the 53 neighbourhoods.

Other areas which saw large hikes in average income were Woodberry Down and Manor House (22%) and Bruce Grove North (21%).

The former Turkey Street ward in Enfield was ranked 31st on the list.

The analysis was focused only on areas which in 2012 were found in the lowest 20% of average incomes in London. Many of the areas in that lowest 20% have not gentrified to the same extent, and are therefore not included in the 53 identified neighbourhoods.

In its research, produced in partnership with the WPI Economics consultancy, the trust defined gentrification as “the influx of more affluent residents in lower income areas, relative to the residents that were already there, and the displacement of the previous population”.

The analysis found that in the 53 gentrified places, there was a “remarkable” decrease of almost two percentage points in the proportion of black people living in them, despite the fact that London’s black population remained essentially static between 2012 and 2020.

This equates to “around 10,000 black Londoners that we would see living in these 53 neighbourhoods if the proportion had stayed the same”, the research states.

Although the white population in the gentrified areas fell by a larger amount (more than 4%), this was still a smaller fall than in the rest of London (about 6%).

The 53 gentrified areas also saw increases (on average more than 2%) in the proportion of couples without children. The analysis explains that “one of the biggest threats of gentrification is that it makes London so expensive families can no longer afford to raise children here”.

This trend has also been reflected in the decline of primary school applications in the capital, particularly in inner London, and in the recently confirmed closure of the maternity unit at Royal Free Hospital in North London.

The research similarly identified an average fall of around five per cent in the number of households living in social-rented homes in the 53 gentrified areas, significantly more than the one per cent fall seen across the rest of London. The gentrified neighbourhoods also saw a rise in the number of people working in managerial positions.

Manny Hothi, the Trust’s chief executive said: “This research points to something that many Londoners have suspected for years – the city is becoming increasingly unaffordable for low-income families. We’re witnessing families and long-standing communities being priced out on a scale we haven’t seen before.

“London’s diverse blend of communities is what makes it one of the best cities in the world. But the current trend shows the city is at a tipping point, at risk of being a homogenous place where only people above a certain income bracket can afford to be.

“If we want London to be a city where people from all backgrounds, of all ages, can live and thrive, urgent action is needed to address the affordability crisis.”

Guy Weir, head of data insights at WPI Economics, added: “Getting under the skin of local area data is key to understanding what’s happening beneath the headlines. As this analysis shows, several London neighbourhoods changed dramatically between 2012 and 2020, with the available data pointing towards a displacement of those on lower incomes.

“While the overall poverty rate has declined across the capital, analysis like this highlights that beneath the surface, communities across the city are struggling to afford to live in London.”

List of 53 wards ordered by percentage increase in average income, 2012-2020

Spitalfields
Aldgate
Bethnal Green South
Woodberry Down & Manor House
Bruce Grove North
Camberwell Green
Bethnal Green Central
Beckton
Bromley-by-Bow West
Somers Town
Beckton North
Bromley-by-Bow East
Finsbury Park West
Manor Park North
Grahame Park
Stonebridge
Loughborough Road
Plaistow Park
Woolwich South
Peckham North
Mile End West
Peckham North West
Limehouse North & Stepney East
Tottenham Green East
Mile End East & Burdett Estate
Burgess Park
University Hospital & Queen’s Road
Custom House
Euston
Poplar Leaside
Turkey Street
Tottenham Green West
Harringay Warehouse District & Vartry
Poplar West
Roundwood Park
Peckham Park Road
Harlesden
Plumstead High Street
Tottenham Lea Valley
Alperton East
Welsh Harp
Kilburn Park
Anerley North & Penge West
Roehampton North West
Woolwich West
Golborne & Swinbrook
Burnt Oak & Watling Park
St Mary Cray North
Hayes End
Whitechapel
South Bermondsey East
Leytonstone South West
Dagnam Park & Noak Hill

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