Shock new government statistics appear to contradict data used in the council’s Local Plan to justify building on the Green Belt, reports Clara Aberneithie

Enfield’s population is projected to grow by just 47 people over a decade – by far the slowest rate in London.

The new population projections for the period 2022-2032 were recently published by the government’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) and put the borough’s forecast growth at just 0.01%, significantly below the London average of 6.7% and England average of 6.4%.

The ONS states that the dominant drive behind slow population growth in Enfield is people moving away from the borough, with a negative change of around 44,000 people expected up to 2032 from what it calls “net internal migration”. This number of people leaving Enfield almost completely cancels out the rise in population due to be caused by immigration (of around 30,000) and the “natural change” of births outpacing deaths (by around 14,500), according to the ONS.

ONS’s projection of almost zero growth in Enfield’s population, which stood at around 330,000 at the most recent census in 2021, stands in contrast to estimates used in the draft Enfield Local Plan document, which is set to be finalised and adopted later this year.

The 2023 version of Enfield Council’s draft Local Plan, currently being examined by a government-appointed inspector, states that “projection scenarios to 2041 show an increase of roughly 51,000 in population” – with this figure being used to justify the council’s allocation of 33,280 new homes in the borough over the same period.

It means that while the Local Plan includes projected annual population growth in Enfield of 2,318 people, the ONS is forecasting instead only 4.7 extra people per year.

Matt Burn, from campaign group Better Homes Enfield, is a planning researcher and specialist in population statistics by trade. He has long questioned the inclusion of the 51,000 population growth figure in the Local Plan and told the Dispatch: “This latest ONS data reconfirms that Enfield’s proposed new Local Plan is based on very out-of-date information.

“Key population figures on which the plan is built have changed enormously and the council must now adapt the plan in response to this information, instead of trudging on regardless.”

The Dispatch has asked the council where the 51,000 statistic used in the Local Plan came from, but has not received any response.

Earlier this month, the ongoing Local Plan public examination heard evidence from the council that local business owners in Crews Hill who refused to sell their land would be issued with compulsory purchase orders (CPOs) in order to make room for 5,500 new homes in the area – all within the Green Belt.

ONS’s new population data highlights Tower Hamlets as the fastest growing local area in England, with a 20.4% forecasted increase, while the second-slowest growth in London outside of Enfield can be found in Richmond upon Thames, with a 1.88% projected rise. Outside London, a small number of areas in England are forecasting negative growth, with the biggest drop, of 2.1%, being in Gosport, Hampshire.

View the ONS population projections for Enfield:
Visit ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections

Update (7.30pm):

Enfield Council leader Ergin Erbil said: “Recent data may suggest that Enfield’s population might grow a bit slower than we first thought. But this doesn’t change our long-term plans for building new homes in the area. London is growing. Enfield is growing. We need to act now to build the homes, community spaces, leisure facilities, health centres, and shops we will need in the future.

“Our housing targets up to 2041 are based on detailed research, including advice from the Greater London Authority (GLA), which looks at important issues like housing affordability, how many people need homes, and overcrowding. These projections are commonly used across London when planning for the future.

“The official population numbers do not consider future housing or economic growth, so we need to plan for housing based on actual needs like affordability and hidden households. This is supported by national planning guidelines.

“We still believe some Green Belt land needs to be used for housing, and we have strong evidence to support this. It’s important for Enfield to build more homes because there are many working families in need of affordable family-sized homes. It is of utmost importance that we tackle the housing crisis.”

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