With three months until polling day, the race for control of Enfield Civic Centre has firmly begun, writes Dispatch editor James Cracknell

The local election this May is likely to be the most closely contested in the borough since 2010 – the last time there was a change of administration at Enfield Civic Centre.

While the battle for political control of the council is still fully expected to be a two-horse race between Labour and the Conservatives, the way the electorate fragments in this election is likely to be a significant factor in determining the overall result.

In many ways, this year’s election is without modern precedent. It’s been 20 years since any councillor was elected in Enfield without representing either Labour or the Tories, but five parties have now told the Dispatch they are aiming to field a full slate of 63 candidates for 2026 – with the Green Party, Reform UK and Liberal Democrats all determined to mount a challenge.

Then there is Your Party, the new Jeremy Corbyn-backed left-wing project which has had a rocky start to its existence. Enfield Community Independents, a group of local activists established three years ago, has now aligned itself to Your Party and is planning to stand at least one candidate in every ward.

For context, last time in 2022 the Greens fielded 29 candidates in Enfield while Reform UK – which had only recently formed – stood just three candidates.

Nationally, it’s clear the Labour Party is losing a lot of support to the two parties on its left, with the Conservatives facing a similar problem from the Nigel Farage-led Reform to its right, while the resurgent Lib Dems can appeal to voters from either side of the political spectrum.

What will be the big election issues here in Enfield?

For starters, it’s worth a reminder of what happened last time out in 2022. At that election the big local issues (aside from always-relevant topics such as crime and cleanliness) included two new low-traffic neighbourhoods that had proven highly divisive, threats to the Green Belt and Whitewebbs Park, and the future of Edmonton incinerator.

Added to these were concerns around the way then-leader Nesil Caliskan had overseen a big split in the Labour group, prompting several defections and resignations over the previous four years.

The 2022 poll was held at the height of the ‘Partygate’ scandal nationally, which would eventually lead to the downfall of Boris Johnson as prime minster. This background contributed to the Conservatives suffering one of their worst-ever local election results nationally, losing 485 seats across the country. Yet, in Enfield, something very different happened – the Tories won eight seats from Labour.

The 2022 election showed was that voters in Enfield were looking beyond national issues to cast judgement on the performance of the council – and it was not a favourable verdict from Labour’s point of view.

However, what will deeply worry Labour councillors and local activists now is that the national picture in 2026 is a far different one from 2022. In government since 2024, the Keir Starmer-led party has suffered record-low poll ratings and struggled to fix the problems it promised to solve.

It means that as well as winning the argument on local issues, Enfield Labour will also need to overcome a difficult national backdrop to succeed at this election.

In terms of local issues, the threats to the Green Belt that were already causing voters to ditch Labour in 2022 have only grown in the years since – Enfield is now set to see 884 hectares of largely greenfield land built on in the north-west of the borough, as one of the first ‘new towns’ designated by the government.

With at least 21,000 homes now expected to be built at Crews Hill and ‘Chase Park’, concerns over how the borough will cope with this new urban sprawl appear to be far greater than they were four years ago.

The fierce opposition there had been to two low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) in Palmers Green and Bowes Park has quietened down since 2022, when they had only recently been made permanent. But there remains a sense that Enfield Council is not alive to the concerns of motorists – who have recently had to suffer the botched installation of a new bus lane in Enfield Town that saw huge tailbacks. A plan to bring in a borough-wide 20mph scheme, proposed last summer, has also had to be watered down by the council following a backlash, with only three town centres now included.

As for Whitewebbs, the fate of the park and the decision to award Tottenham Hotspur a 25-year lease have not just caused controversy locally – but nationally. Even national treasure Dame Judi Dench is now attacking Enfield Council over the issue.

And in terms of crime and the cleanliness of the borough’s streets, Enfield Labour will point to a number of schemes and initiatives that it claims have had success, but whether voters from across the whole borough are convinced remains to be seen.

State of the parties

Enfield Conservatives, led by Joanne Laban in 2022, are now led by Alessandro Georgiou, a London Assembly member who has raised his profile through a prolific use of social media. Cllr Georgiou’s firmly right-wing brand of politics – which have led some in Labour to accuse him of copying the populist tactics used by Reform UK – aren’t the sort that would usually find mass appeal across Enfield. But by focusing on the big local issues and by making big promises – such as bringing back weekly bin collections and “ripping out” LTNs – it’s likely his social media videos are having an impact.

Enfield Labour, led by Ergin Erbil since September 2024, has not suffered any further defections of the kind which typified the 2018-2022 period. However, a number of recent scandals – especially that of ex-mayor Mohammad Islam, found to have “brought his office into disrepute” after using council resources to assist with visa applications for friends and family – have cemented the impression of an ill-disciplined party.

On Facebook one former Labour cabinet member in Enfield, who stood down prior to the 2018 election, recently declared that he would be backing Cllr Georgiou as “someone we can trust”, while also slamming the “disastrous incompetence” of Enfield Labour. Alan Sitkin has long been a critic of the current administration, but his comments are stark. How many voters agree could be pivotal.

Battleground wards

As for the key borough battlegrounds, the traditional divide has been between east and west, neatly separated by the A10 dual carriageway.

There are 36 council seats available in the west, and 27 up for grabs in the east – all won by Labour in 2022. However, even if the party were to repeat this success in 2026, it would still need to retain at least five of its eleven seats in the west – in New Southgate, Bowes Park, Highfield, Palmers Green and Southbury wards.

Of these, Highfield was the most closely contested in 2022, with just 29 votes separating the lowest Labour candidate in second and the highest Conservative candidate in third.

For the Tories, winning four of the five battleground wards listed above, as well as defending their existing seats, would be enough to return them to power at Enfield Civic Centre for the first time in 16 years.

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